Advanced Market Distress and Risk Modeling

Today’s housing markets are unhealthy and fogged by distress.  Without cohesive and granular data, investors and development teams cannot gauge the appropriate risk for their limited resources.  We access national property and customized loan data for realtime assessment within the SMA/RT™ platform (see Technologies), allowing Client teams to create new outlooks on distress and risk.  Their challenges likely include equity placement, REO options and market reentry, and merger opportunities.

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This Orange County CA example demonstrates the integration of granular property and current loan data that is parsed toward Client risk metrics and cast back into market place perspective, beginning with a distribution of every home in the trade area aggregated through a model and scored by current LTV risk tier (left).

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Data is filtered by combined LTV, current valuation, year of last transaction, subdivision or in any combination that best measures Client risk.  Filtered data is geo-located and plotted into a SMA/RT™ Platform for risk assessment at the neighborhood level against high-res satellite imagery, all seen in dynamic overlays (center left).

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Risk metrics are readily cast against the market mega-trends over time to forecast the investment risk, as demonstrated in the a chart of all trade area housing sales over the last 20 years (lower left).  This approach gives clarity and confidence to today’s market place.  It allows trending for the viral default risk that may still loom on the horizon.  Modeling begins and remains at the parcel level with the ready ability to season or add to the modeled data.